Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
