A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
